This might be an offseason that brings some goalie movement. Unless a netminder hits free agency and signs with a new team, No. 1 goaltenders don’t always change teams. Trades featuring the primary goalie position are somewhat rare, especially in-season. If a starter is going to be moved, it’s probably going to be in the offseason so there’s enough time to start working with a new team staff and less of an on-ice adjustment period.
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Unlike years past, there’s actually some smoke around a couple of starters — whether it’s Carter Hart, whose name has come up as the Flyers try to rebuild, or even Connor Hellebuyck, who could get traded a year ahead of hitting free agency.
If there’s one spicy goalie trade, maybe there’s a domino effect to spark more. Maybe even one featuring John Gibson.
Gibson is signed for another four years at a $6.4 million cap hit in Anaheim and it may make sense for the Ducks to flip him considering their differing timelines.
Gibson’s probably spent the best years of his career playing behind a Ducks team that hasn’t matched his caliber. He’ll be 30 when the puck drops on the next season, so the clock is ticking on him playing as a true No. 1 on a competitive team. And it’s highly unlikely the Ducks can turn it around quickly enough to be that.
So instead of wasting time, it’s probably in the Ducks’ best interest to get what they can for Gibson before his value continues to drop playing behind them. Lukas Dostal can take over with Anthony Stolarz sharing the net if Stolarz re-signs. Or another inexpensive option can come to Anaheim to join Dostal.
Why should teams be interested in John Gibson?
Playing behind a team as terrible as the Ducks can weigh on even the best goalie’s game. Anaheim was historically bad defensively last year. In all situations, the Ducks conceded 39.1 shots against per game, which is the worst of any team on record. And at five-on-five, they conceded a rate of 3.49 expected goals against per 60, which was the worst of any team in the analytics era, which started in 2007-08.
In 53 games behind that disastrous team, Gibson actually only conceded 2.3 goals above expected. It’s below average, but not nearly as bad as it could have been. Many goaltenders probably would have managed that workload a lot worse.
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But it also makes four straight years of Gibson falling below average relative to his workload, which can be a red flag. It’s a far cry from the heights of his career when he saved upward of 24 goals above expectation per year between 2016-17 and 2018-19.
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Goaltending is a tricky position to project. A team would be taking a leap considering the term left on his contract, with no guarantee that he’ll bounce back anywhere near his peak level behind a stronger defense. But considering how high that level once was, the way he’s managed chaos in Anaheim, and the benefit of having cost certainty with this acquisition (unlike say, Hellebuyck), there may be legitimate interest around the league.
Who should be interested?
Pittsburgh Penguins
Before a deal can happen, Gibson can designate a 10-team no-trade list. It’s a safe bet that his hometown of Pittsburgh is not on it.
The Penguins need a starting goaltender, and quickly. Tristian Jarry’s an unrestricted free agent, and despite some solid regular-season performances, he hasn’t delivered in the playoffs enough — whether it’s due to his play slipping or untimely injuries. Casey DeSmith, who is on the books for another year, isn’t a starter, or even 1A caliber for a playoff team.
That puts them in search of a solid replacement. Gibson carries risk that may scare Pittsburgh, considering all that the Penguins have riding on these next two years before Sidney Crosby’s contract is up. But they’re also constructed a lot differently in front of the crease than Anaheim, plus a Kyle Dubas-led front office can do some digging below the surface to try and predict if it’ll work. He’s shown a propensity to take big swings and risks in net before, and Gibson may be similar to past Dubas gambles in goal.
The problem is cost. Pittsburgh doesn’t have a ton of assets and probably doesn’t want to sink what it has into just one player. Any salary retention would only add to the cost. Plus there’s the term of his contract to consider. But if other teams aren’t as willing to go for Gibson, or other starters don’t go for much via trade, maybe it could work out for the Penguins.
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Carolina Hurricanes
Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta are becoming unrestricted free agents, so that could put the Hurricanes in the market — if they don’t think Pyotr Kochetkov is ready to take over the starter’s net. If management does, that’s where the conversation starts and ends.
If not, maybe there’s something here.
The Hurricanes are a strong defensive team that would do a much better job insulating their goalies from the number of shots Gibson’s accustomed to facing. That’s something that would put him in a position to succeed. Carolina has a history of helping players bounce back in its sustainable environment — on defense the Hurricanes just showed that with Brent Burns, and back in goal they did with Andersen after a sour ending to his Toronto tenure. So maybe Gibson is the next step in that.
Unlike Pittsburgh, the Hurricanes do have the cap flexibility and assets to move. They have picks in every round over the next three years and some prospects they could consider moving. But the Canes have to ensure they don’t clog up the books too much with Sebastian Aho’s contract expiring next year.
Carolina actually has a ton of deals expiring this summer and in the next couple of years, and big extensions to a few key players would limit what the Hurricanes have left over for their goalie unless they paid for salary retention. Then there’s the question of whether Gibson’s too much of a commitment, and whether he’d block Kochetkov’s path. Would a better option be someone with less term? Or could they find the balance of having Gibson start, then share the crease in the later years of the deal?
New Jersey Devils
The Devils are back in the playoff picture, but likely are contemplating ways to remedy what contributed to their elimination, which was goaltending.
It’s not as dire as it was in say, 2021-22 when the goaltending in New Jersey was a legitimate tire fire no matter who was in net. But Vitek Vanecek struggled with his starting workload as the season progressed and did not rise to the occasion in the playoffs at all, losing his starting net to Akira Schmid.
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Maybe the Devils are content keeping the same crease. Vanecek may be in a better position this year, now that he’s more accustomed to a more rigorous workload. And Schmid could easily be the true 1B goaltender to round out the pair if New Jersey doesn’t qualify or parts ways with Mackenzie Blackwood.
If the Devils want more certainty in net than either can provide right now, it’ll require looking elsewhere — maybe at Hellebuyck, who they reportedly have interest in, or Gibson.
The team in front of the blue paint in New Jersey does a good job protecting its goalies and limiting their workloads. How many key defensive departures the Devils have this summer may determine if they can repeat that this season, but regardless the expectation shouldn’t be an environment anywhere near Anaheim.
New Jersey has prospects to move and some picks, but the Devils’ system is a bit more depleted post-2023 trade deadline. Cap space is another luxury for the Devils. It’s not something they can give out freely because Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier need extensions, but if other free-agent departures are replaced by entry-level contracts, they should maintain the space needed now and in the next few years.
Ottawa Senators
While Carolina and New Jersey are bona fide playoff teams and the Penguins are looking to return to the postseason, the Senators are trying to take the next steps to reach the playoffs again. Already, they’ve made some key additions up front and on defense with Jakob Chychrun at the deadline for a very team-friendly price. Now, there needs to be a bit more stability in goal.
Anton Forsberg, when healthy, can be a solid 1B or backup. But if Ottawa wants to be a true playoff team, the Senators likely need someone a bit stronger as their true No. 1. If Gibson shows he can still handle some of the defensive chaos the Senators are still working through, it’s a match because he should have goals support up front.
The Senators have a lot of cost certainty with their core players. The big question now is what happens with Alex DeBrincat if they extend him — management just has to ensure they have enough to cover any other raises in the near future and Gibson’s contract. If they move DeBrincat, the Senators can likely use that return to bring in a high-caliber goalie. As it stands, Ottawa’s already without its top three picks this year. But the team has firsts over the next two years and prospects who could be sent to Anaheim for the starter. Depending on how the DeBrincat situation progresses, the Senators may add more pieces to offer.
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The question is whether Gibson would be willing to go to a team that isn’t quite playoff caliber yet, or even one that has some ownership questions.
The Ottawa Senators allowed 3.29 goals per game last season. (Eric Bolte / USA Today)Detroit Red Wings
If Gibson is willing to move to a team that’s on the brink of returning to the playoffs, there’s another option in the Atlantic in the Red Wings.
Detroit has quite a few draft picks it can move. Over the next three years, the Red Wings have all of their own picks besides a 2023 third-round pick. But they have the Wild’s third-round pick this year, plus additional third-rounders in 2024 and 2025. The Red Wings also have the Islanders’ first-round pick this year, Boston’s next year and 2023 second-rounders from St. Louis and Vancouver. Plus they have a prospect pool they can deal from to address their goaltending situation.
Detroit does have Ville Husso signed for another two seasons, so maybe the Red Wings just need to find a cheaper 1B behind him so they can dedicate their assets elsewhere. The Red Wings could use another right-handed defenseman and it wouldn’t hurt to add a top-six forward, either. A Gibson trade wouldn’t prohibit either from happening, considering their picks or prospects. It’s just a matter of whether they want to make a splashy addition in goal right now.
Buffalo Sabres
Again, this requires Gibson’s willingness to join an up-and-coming team. The Sabres are the third Atlantic Division team to fit that mold. The current contenders in that division either have a goalie (Boston, Tampa) or can’t afford the price of acquisition (Toronto, without some massive changes — it’s not impossible, just improbable). That’s why those teams looking to make their return to the playoffs are the more likely options.
Buffalo’s goaltending was inconsistent this year. Craig Anderson’s out of the picture now. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen and Eric Comrie aren’t exactly the most reliable picks, either. Devon Levi is a bright spot in the crease, but his development has to be the priority and that plan may not include being thrown into a starting role just yet. That may be why the Sabres are reportedly interested in Hellebuyck if he becomes available. If they acquired a starter, the Sabres would have to project if acquiring a player with Gibson’s term would block Levi’s path, or whether it would provide a smooth transition that allows a more competitive team now with a true future in Levi.
Buffalo has draft picks and young players it could move, including Luukkonen if Anaheim wanted a goalie back in return. There’s the cap space to make this work, but Rasmus Dahlin’s next contract has to be a consideration because he’s due for a major raise next summer.
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Similar to Detroit and Ottawa, Buffalo still has to work on its defensive structure. So the Sabres have to hope that Gibson can still handle a busy workload, as long as it’s not the same as what he experienced in Anaheim.
The Sabres lost a heartbreaker. But Devon Levi looks like the answer in net. And he might be ready for the job sooner than most goalie prospects.
“I’ve always wanted to be the guy that people rely upon. Put me in the situation and I’ll figure it out.”
— Matthew Fairburn (@MatthewFairburn) April 5, 2023
Los Angeles Kings
Another unlikely match is the Kings, but they’re still worth mentioning considering their current crease. Los Angeles managed to shed Cal Petersen’s contract at a cost, leaving the Kings with just one NHL-caliber goalie signed through next year in Pheonix Copley. If the idea isn’t to bring back Joonas Korpisalo, they’re going to be in the market for a netminder.
Cap space is still tight after extending Vladislav Gavrikov. But another cost-cutting move could clear way for a goalie with term. It helps that there’s only one year left on Anze Kopitar’s contract (that isn’t to say the captain won’t return, but it won’t be at $10 million in cap space).
Would the Ducks be willing to move Gibson in division? That’s the question. The Ducks probably won’t be competitive while he’s a bona fide playoff-caliber starter (if he bounces back). So it may not hurt Anaheim as much, because there’s little risk of having to face him in the playoffs in the near future. That being said, as a division rival, it won’t be surprising to see the Ducks’ management add a tax of sorts to their competitor. And that would probably squeeze the Kings too far considering how many assets they’ve dished out in big trades these last few years.
Data via CapFriendly and Evolving-Hockey
(Top photo of John Gibson: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
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